By Mike Dolan
Nov 3 (Reuters) – Energy markets were blindsided overnight by reports of US military strikes on Iran, cutting across multiple reports on Monday of peace talk mediation that had sent crude oil prices plunging about 7% during the day.
As Americans prepared to head to the midterm polls, the US conducted strikes on Iran’s Qeshm island in the Strait of Hormuz – actions described as “defensive” by officials.
Crude prices edged back up a tad as a result, but it throws some doubt about whether fresh bombing or nods to negotiations hold sway once the election is done.
Either way, the oil price reset did little to improve the mood in tech stocks on Monday. An early rally from last Friday’s jolt evaporated by the close, and even though Apple’s earnings and iPhone sales beat forecasts after the bell, the stock of the world’s most valuable company fell out of hours as it flagged falling margins amid chip input price pressures.
AMD’s results will provide another big test of the mood in the chip sector later on Tuesday, with Intel’s eye-popping near-30% slide on Friday still reverberating. Tech stocks around the world were on the back foot again overnight.
There was some relief for Australian markets as the Reserve Bank there lifted interest rates for the fifth time this year to 18-year highs, but signalled that may well be the last in the cycle. That knocked back the Aussie dollar but lifted local shares.
With a side order of monthly labor market data, more earnings and Treasury’s quarterly refunding plans, investors now turn squarely to the US midterms – even though a clear picture of how the polls shape a new Congress will likely not be seen until Wednesday at the earliest.
Prediction markets still see a Democratic clean sweep of both houses as the most likely outcome – but the Senate race may go down to the wire and take days to parse.
In the backdrop, the latest Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll showed President Trump’s approval rating was unchanged from the prior survey – just one point above its lowest level for either of his two presidential terms.
CHART OF THE DAY
A surprisingly narrow 6-3 vote to hike rates by Australia’s central bank signaled policymakers may be nearing the end of their tightening campaign.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s board lifted rates by 25 basis points to 4.85% and said it would continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation to target. However, it did remove a reference to increasing the cash rate further if needed.
TODAY’S EVENTS TO WATCH
• US midterm elections
• US September JOLTS job openings (10 a.m. EST), September factory orders (10 a.m. EST)
• US earnings including AMD, Super Micro Computer, Arista Networks, Pfizer, Amgen, Shopify
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