July 3 (Reuters) – The data releases are thinning out, earnings season hasn’t kicked off yet and there are no big rate decisions looming, but a high-stakes NATO meeting, a glimpse into Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as head of the Federal Reserve and an unpredictable oil price will offer plenty to keep markets busy.
Here’s your look at the coming week from Rae Wee in Singapore, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Alun John, Amanda Cooper and Marc Jones in London.
1/ SCOURING FOR CLUES
Investors will seek more clarity in the coming week about the path for U.S. interest rates as they parse minutes from the latest Federal Reserve meeting — the first under new chair Kevin Warsh.
The June meeting minutes on Wednesday will be scrutinised for potential divisions within the central bank and policymakers’ views about the influence of energy prices, which have come down significantly in recent weeks. Bets on rate hikes firmed following the meeting, which investors took as surprisingly hawkish.
Warsh himself has said he will stick firmly to the Fed’s 2% inflation target and “disappoint” anyone who expects loose monetary policy.
Markets also will get early indications about a pivotal second-quarter U.S. earnings season, with reports next week from PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines.
2/ NATO’S TRUMP CARD
Turkey hosts the leaders of NATO’s 32 member countries, plus others from the Gulf and elsewhere on July 7-8 for what is shaping up to be a pivotal two-day summit for the fraying military alliance.
The last summit yielded a landmark commitment that member countries — with the exception of Spain — will spend the equivalent of 5% of GDP on defence by 2035. Now, leaders arrive in Ankara under pressure to deliver and to avert any new threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw from the 77-year-old Atlantic alliance.
Away from the main money talk and the fretting about the U.S. security umbrella, there could also be news about what has been dubbed a new NATO bank championed by Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney.
There is also the deeper, more difficult question. Can an alliance built for consensus move at the speed now needed to face the current global challenges?
3/ IT’S CALM …TOO CALM
Blink and you’d miss it. Oil futures are back to where they were before the war started in late February. From a four-year high of $126 a barrel in May, Brent crude futures are now just above $70 a barrel, after a downward spiral whose speed has surprised everyone.
Back in 2022, this many weeks after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, front-month Brent futures were still some 13% above those pre-war levels, while the price of crude for delivery in 12 months’ time was almost 10% above.
Global inventories aren’t at rock bottom, but they still need replenishing after record drawdowns. Oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, but in fits and starts. And production facilities damaged by the war aren’t quite back to 100%. The risks are building for another leg higher in crude that few right now may be factoring in. The OPEC+ group meeting on Sunday may offer some more insight.
4/ EUROPE’S FACTORIES SPUTTER
The widening trade gap between China and the European Union is causing angst in Brussels, where the EU’s trade chief has just met China’s commerce minister.
A raft of data and developments in the coming days will put that situation into context.
German and French trade data for May is due, as well as industrial production for Germany – Europe’s traditional economic powerhouse.
Production in the three months to April was already flagging, so investors and politicians will search for any signs of how the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran may have boosted the sector.
The state of manufacturing at the heart of Europe is further underscored by the situation at Volkswagen, which is considering shutting four German factories and cutting up to 100,000 jobs. Those plans are due to be discussed at a July 9 meeting of VW’s supervisory board, Reuters has reported.
5/ JOIN THE CLUB
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its rate decision on Wednesday, where investors are betting the central bank could join its Australian counterpart in raising rates.
While some brokerages have pared back their rate-hike forecasts after the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire sent oil prices back to pre-war levels, inflation is expected to remain above the RBNZ’s target band for some time.
That strengthens the case for tighter policy, though it could come at the cost of further weakness in the country’s labour market.
The International Monetary Fund said New Zealand’s economic recovery has been delayed by the oil-price shock and heightened global uncertainty.
Elsewhere in Asia, inflation data from China, Thailand, the Philippines and Taiwan due in the week ahead could reveal further pass-through effects from the surge in energy prices stemming from the Middle East war.
(Graphics by Vineet Sachdev, compiled by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Gareth Jones)
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