(Reuters) -A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole.
U.S. President Donald Trump is touring Tokyo today, and all the talk is of baseball, golf gifts and Nobel Peace Prizes, along with the odd deal on rare earths.
The bonhomie is at least a relief from the usual trade war invective and keeps alive hopes for some sort of rapprochement with China later in the week.
It’s allowed Asian markets to consolidate most of the outsized gains made on Monday, with indexes in Japan, Taiwan and South Korea all near record highs. The latter got an added bump from data showing the economy outpaced forecasts in the third quarter, led by strength in consumption and exports.
China’s Shanghai index also pushed past 4,000 for the first time since 2015 as Beijing signed an upgraded free-trade deal with Southeast Asian bloc ASEAN.
European and Wall Street futures are mostly flat, no surprise given the who’s who of mega-caps reporting this week have a lot to live up to.
Expectations are high given that of the 30% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far, 85% have topped the Street on EPS. Options imply share price swings of 6% in either direction are possible depending on the results.
Likewise, bonds and the dollar are waiting anxiously to see just how dovish the Federal Reserve might be on Wednesday. A cut of 25 basis points is baked in, and investors are looking for validation of bets for another in December, and two more next year.
The long-end would also very much like for the Fed to stop running down its balance sheet, please. No more QT for thee.
For the Bank of Japan, betting is very much for no move on Thursday, though there is a risk that two or more members vote for a rate hike given stubborn inflation.
An actual hike would certainly trigger a violent sell-off in dollar/yen, suggesting the risk-averse BOJ might just lay the groundwork for a tightening in December or January.
Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday:
– ECB bank lending survey
– U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence, Richmond Fed October Manufacturing Index, Dallas Fed services survey, August house prices
(By Wayne Cole; Editing by Jamie Freed)
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