By Eliana Raszewski
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Argentina, the International Monetary Fund’s long-term problem child and biggest debtor, once again needs to seek forgiveness: this time for falling short on foreign currency reserve build-up targets linked to a new $20 billion deal.
The South American country is likely to get it, too, analysts and former officials said.
Argentina struck its latest deal – its 23rd – with the Washington-based lender in April, needed to help roll over an earlier $44 billion deal and give the government of libertarian Javier Milei financial firepower to undo capital controls.
The front-loaded deal came with economic targets attached to unlock further funds, including on inflation and rebuilding depleted central bank foreign currency reserves, that were deep in the red when Milei took office in late 2023.
Milei has tempered inflation with tough austerity and guided the country out of a recession, but accumulating dollars has proven tough, leaving levels short of those demanded by the IMF.
However, former government and IMF officials said that Milei had done enough to gain some leeway, with his cost-cutting having overturned years of deep fiscal deficits, winning over markets and gaining plaudits from IMF leaders.
“I think they will forgive them even if they (the IMF) then ask for more later,” Claudio Loser, former IMF director for the Western Hemisphere, told Reuters.
That would likely come in the form of a waiver, approving the first program review despite missed targets on reserves. An IMF team arrived in Argentina on Tuesday for that review.
Daniel Marx, former Argentine finance secretary from 1999 to 2001, told Reuters that the next disbursement – some $2 billion – would require the IMF to give special dispensation.
“Most likely, the disbursement won’t be automatic, but it will require a waiver,” he said.
“It was thought that the central bank would have intervened by accumulating reserves. This hasn’t happened, at least until now.”
The Ministry of Economy and presidency did not respond to a request for comment. The central bank declined to comment and said talks with the IMF technical team were just starting. The IMF pointed to a statement about its team arriving in Argentina.
Key to the waiver is Milei’s strong record on the fiscal surplus with his tough “deficit zero” drive. Last week the government said it would deepen cost cutting in order to hit a surplus target of 1.6% of GDP.
Minister of Economy Luis Caputo said earlier this month reserves accumulation was no longer as important as before with a freer float for the peso currency and the central bank better financed. He flagged IMF backing for Milei’s reforms.
Aldo Abram, director of the Fundación Libertad y Progreso in Buenos Aires, estimated that the country might be $500 million to $1 billion below the agreed reserves target, but it shouldn’t block new funds being disbursed.
“That won’t cause major problems for the Fund,” he said. “I think forgiveness (the waiver) will be approved quickly and the disbursement may take a week or two.”
(Reporting by Eliana Raszewski; Editing by Adam Jourdan and Sandra Maler)
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