By Gabriel Burin
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) -Brazil’s central bank is expected to keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 14.75%, its highest in nearly two decades, on June 18 and also remain data-dependent for upcoming decisions, a Reuters poll of economists showed.
The consensus view shifted from a poll in May, when a majority of analysts who answered extra questions on the next move by Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) said they expected a 25 basis point hike in June.
It would be the first pause after the BCB raised its Selic rate six consecutive times by a total of 425 basis points to its highest since July 2006.
At the end of next week’s two-day meeting, policymakers will also probably reiterate their concerns about still-elevated inflation, while noting some moderation in consumer prices amid heightened uncertainty.
The decision should maintain the considerable spread of more than 10 percentage points over U.S. rates, a gap that has helped strengthen Brazil’s currency but is weighing on economic growth.
The bank’s monetary policy committee, known as Copom, will hold the Selic rate steady, according to a majority of 27 economists of 39 polled June 9-12. Twelve predicted a 25 basis-point increase to 15.00%.
“Copom is expected to keep the Selic stable at 14.75% at this meeting, but with a very cautious tone, possibly leaving the doors open to raising rates again in the future,” said Robson Pereira, chief economist at Brasilprev.
“The statement should acknowledge that since the last meeting, there has been a reduction in the risks of an imminent global recession but also that the level of uncertainty remains very high.”
Brazil’s inflation rate slowed more than forecast last month. However, the 12-month gauge came in at 5.32%, surpassing again the central bank’s target of 3% plus/minus a margin of 1.5 percentage points.
Last week, Gabriel Galipolo, BCB’s governor, said the bank was keeping its options open into June’s policy meeting, in line with its decision in May to drop any forward guidance on policy.
Asked in the latest survey what the next move would be, all 29 respondents to the extra question called for a rate cut. Ten expected an easing in January 2026, six in December 2025 and the rest in other months.
In response to another extra question on the size of the possible reduction in the cost of borrowing, a slight majority of 16 predicted a 25 basis-points cut and the other 13 a half-percentage point move.
The Selic will stay at 14.75% until year-end, and then fall to 14.00% in the first quarter of 2026, closing next year at 12.00%, medians in the poll showed.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
(Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Jonathan Cable, Ross Finley and Kim Coghill)
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