By Rajendra Jadhav
MUMBAI, Aug 24 (Reuters) – India is on course for its weakest monsoon in nearly two decades, with rainfall likely to end the season around 15% below the long-term average, the lowest since 2009, two senior weather department sources said.
The weak monsoon could hurt crop output, drive up food prices and curb rural incomes in the world’s fifth-largest economy, where the rains provide around 70% of the country’s annual rainfall.
A lack of good rains in the crucial crop-maturing month of September could dent yields of summer-sown crops such as cotton, soybean, corn and pulses, while also depleting soil moisture needed for winter-sown crops such as wheat and rapeseed.
“We are witnessing the impact of El Nino on monsoon rainfall. It is likely to be severe in September, and we could see a double-digit deficit in rainfall,” said a senior official with the India Meteorological Department (IMD), who declined to be named as he was not authorised to speak with media.
India could receive 15% below-average rainfall, or 85% of normal, during the June-September season, which would be the lowest rainfall since 2009, he said.
That would be nearly double the 8% deficit projected in the weather department’s initial forecast.
Except for some eastern states, most parts of the country are likely to receive below-average rainfall in September, widening the seasonal deficit, he added.
The IMD is expected to issue its official forecast for September at the end of this month.
The monsoon this year could begin withdrawing from northwestern parts of the country a few days earlier than usual next month, unless a fresh weather system develops, said a second weather department source, who did not want to be identified in line with official rules.
The monsoon typically begins in June and starts to retreat by September 17 from northwestern parts of the country, ending across the country by mid-October.
El Nino is strengthening and is likely to intensify further in September, suppressing rainfall over India, they said.
A climate pattern marked by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, El Nino disrupts global weather patterns and can bring drier conditions to parts of Southeast Asia and other regions.
In the past, India has experienced below-average rainfall during most El Nino years, sometimes leading to severe droughts that destroyed crops and forced authorities to limit the export of some grains.
India has received 13% less rainfall than average since the monsoon season began on June 1. Rainfall was 35.4% below average in June before a 1% surplus in July offered a brief reprieve. The monsoon weakened again in August, with rainfall so far running 15% below average.
(Reporting by Rajendra Jadhav; Editing by Louise Heavens)
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