As the light turns green to signal the open of Major League Baseball free agency, the looming threat of the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers casts a larger shadow than ever over the other 29 teams.
Most of them are dealing with a level of wallet envy as Los Angeles collects World Series titles and All-Stars at an epic clip.
With perennial MVP Shohei Ohtani front and center, it’s easy to forget the Dodgers scored offseason wins each winter before and after onboarding the two-way stud as a free agent in 2024.
The same year he signed a (largely deferred) 10-year, $700 million contract that runs until 2033, the Dodgers spent $325 million over 12 years (2035) on World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, signed third baseman Max Muncy to an extension and re-upped with right-hander Tyler Glasnow after a trade from the Tampa Bay Rays.
The annual average value of those four deals? A cool $134 million.
Milwaukee was no match for the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series. Worth noting is the current payroll allocation for next season from the Brewers: $45 million.
Don’t look now, but this could be the winter the Cincinnati Reds ($39M), Chicago White Sox ($37M) and Miami Marlins ($23M) combine to reach $100 million in total player payroll contract commitments.
Well, maybe not.
Without ballclubs having the cash or credentials to spend Dodgers dollars — or even Brewers bucks — the biggest fish in free agency are not incentivized to float toward smaller markets, lighter spenders or generally away from LA or New York.
Will there be a surprise bidder for any of the top talents on the free agent market this winter?
Don’t rule out the San Francisco Giants, an NL West division rival of the Dodgers and playoff-qualifying Padres all too aware of MLB’s devolved state as a spenders market.
Here’s our early projection for the landing spot of the top 10 players in free agency:
1. Kyle Tucker, RF, Chicago Cubs
Free Agent Destination: Los Angeles Dodgers
If Tucker truly wants $400 million as is widely speculated, cross off a return to the Chicago Cubs. Yes, he’s 28 and was dogged by hand and calf injuries, but the starting rotation is a higher priority in Chicago. Tucker hit .266/.377/.464 with 22 home runs, 25 doubles, 87 walks and 25 stolen bases in 597 plate appearances.
If the Phillies shock their peers by trading Bryce Harper, they could make a bid and the Yankees are always in play.
2. Kyle Schwarber, DH, Philadelphia Phillies
Free Agent Destination: Philadelphia Phillies
At 32 going on 33 (March 2026), Schwarber is nowhere close to a perfect candidate for most teams looking for power. But his resume can take a bullet. Other than Yankees bomber Aaron Judge, Schwarber has been baseball’s most consistent HR hitter in MLB the past decade. Schwarber doesn’t fit in the field — anywhere — but the Chicago Cubs might come knocking with full knowledge of perceived shortcomings and the Atlanta Braves are intrigued, too.
3. Alex Bregman, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Free Agent Destination: New York Mets
If you guessed Bregman was out of gas before last season, your reading was proven wrong. But the exercise is doomed to become annual because of Bregman’s age — he’ll be 32 in March. Still a solid defensive third baseman, his clubhouse leadership is on par with David Wright and he’d bring a bat to help offset the potential loss of Pete Alonso.
4. Pete Alonso, 1B, New York Mets
Free Agent Destination: Boston Red Sox
Following a similar map to the one Boston used to reel in Bregman last offseason, the Red Sox could be getting a player capable of being an 80 extra-base-hit threat at Fenway Park. There is the looming return of Triston Casas for Boston to balance with their bidding, but a rotation at 1B-DH would suit if the Mets tag out of the bidding.
5. Bo Bichette, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
Free Agent Destination: New York Mets
Cringe away, but the Dodgers make all the sense in the world if the vision is to utilize Bichette as a corner outfielder and second baseman. Of course, he would have a say in buying into that vision. Who else might have the funds for a 28-year-old borderline MVP candidate? All set at shortstop, the Mets would be adding Bichette to play second base and only after the Blue Jays drop the pen and walk away from contract talks. A return to Toronto might still work out, and there are teams with more money capable of forcing Bichette to listen — Los Angeles Angels? — on a 10-year offer.
6. Cody Bellinger, RF, New York Yankees
Free Agent Destination: New York Yankees
Long-term security would appeal to Bellinger, 30, if such an offer exists. More likely, he’s back in pinstripes to give New York balance in the lineup and insurance in case bids for the heavier hitters on this list turn them away.
7. Framber Valdez, LHP, Houston Astros
Free Agent Destination: Chicago Cubs
Reassigning the money ticketed for Tucker to Valdez would be ideal for the Cubs, who have rotation needs and didn’t pick up the option on left-hander Shota Imanaga. Valdez might fetch a $200 million offer from the likes of the Giants and Blue Jays. Will the Cubs blink or swim?
8. Ranger Suarez, LHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Free Agent Destination: San Francisco Giants
We see the Mets and Red Sox kicking the tires on Ranger, but a reunion with the Phillies appears less likely. In the starting pitching market, a team overeager to make a splashy move is always a strong bet. Based on Buster Posey hiring University of Tennessee manager Tony Vitello and both harping on the importance of pitching in the National League West, the Giants fit that profile.
9. Dylan Cease, RHP, San Diego Padres
Free Agent Destination: Chicago Cubs
Once traded by the Cubs to the White Sox, Cease is no longer in Cy Young conversations. He is a workhorse. Cease made at least 32 starts in five consecutive seasons and was No. 1 in the National League in Ks/9 at 11.5 in 2025. The Padres have a Michael King decision to make. It’s possible the new regime prefers Cease or has other (trade) targets queued up. The New York Mets and San Francisco Giants could be in play, and the Detroit Tigers might make a run if they decide Tarik Skubal is worth more as the biggest offseason trade chip due to the direction of contract talks.
10. Josh Naylor, 1B, Seattle Mariners
Free Agent Destination: Seattle Mariners
At 28, Naylor should be the clear priority to return to the Mariners. Acquired from the Arizona Diamondbacks at the trade deadline, Naylor hit 20 home runs and 29 doubles with 92 RBIs between the two stops in 2025. Naylor and third baseman Eugenio Suarez, another Seattle deadline deal last season, are also targets of smaller-market franchises because of the bang for the bucks. Naylor’s contract is likely to be in the 3-5 years, $75 million-$110 million range or approximately $45 million-$60 million less than Schwarber’s.
–Field Level Media
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