BANGKOK (Reuters) – Thailand’s exports beat forecasts with the fastest growth rate in more than three years in September after a surge in U.S. shipments, prompting the commerce ministry to raise its export forecast for the whole of 2025.
Exports THCEX=ECI, a key driver of the Thai economy, rose 19.0% in September from a year earlier, the fastest rate of growth in 42 months, the commerce ministry said on Monday, beating analysts’ expectations of a rise of 7.0% and following an annual rise of 5.8% in August.
Exports were boosted by clarity on U.S. tariffs, as well as signs of a relaxation in U.S. trade measures compared with earlier periods, which helped improve the global trade environment, the ministry said in a statement.
“U.S. tariffs on Thailand have had a relatively limited direct impact, and our entrepreneurs are somewhat prepared,” Nantapong Chiralerspong, head of the Trade Policy and Strategy Office, told a press conference.
“Compared to other ASEAN countries, our 19% tariff rate remains competitive,” he said.
In September, exports to the United States, Thailand’s largest market, jumped 35.3% from a year earlier, the ministry said.
The United States set a 19% tariff on imported goods from Thailand, lower than the 36% rate announced earlier and in line with other countries in the region.
Thailand and the United States on Sunday reached a framework agreement on trade, in which Thailand would eliminate tariff barriers on approximately 99% of U.S. goods.
In the first nine months of 2025, exports rose 13.9% from a year earlier. The commerce ministry now expects exports to rise between 9.4% and 10.4% this year, much higher than its original target of 2% to 3%.
Exports are expected to continue rising in the remaining three months of the year, but at a slower pace, Nantapong said.
In September, imports increased 17.2% from a year earlier, higher than a forecast rise of 10.6%.
That led to a trade surplus of $1.28 billion in September, much higher than the expected $0.1 billion surplus.
Rice export volumes fell by 15.6% annually in September and by 23.1% in the January-September period to 5.8 million metric tons.
(Reporting by Orathai Sriring, Kitiphong Thaichareon and Thanadech Staporncharnchai; Editing by John Mair and David Stanway)
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