A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter
Aaaaaand… breathe. After an enormous week of trade deals, a more hawkish ECB and a buyer’s strike in the Japanese bond market, investors are taking a pause from a recent risk-on rally ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline.
Traders can be excused some profit-taking. On the docket next week are interest rate decisions from the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of Canada, plus U.S. non-farm payrolls data and earnings from Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft.
Earnings season so far has laid bare the fact that businesses focused on artificial intelligence are raking it in. Those catering to actual people, less so.
One more reason to relax: Following a rare – and tense – visit to the Fed on Thursday, Trump expressed displeasure with the cost of renovating the bank’s headquarters but said he is not going to fire Chairman Jerome Powell. For now, anyway.
“To do so is a big move and I just don’t think it’s necessary,” Trump told reporters after the visit. Yields on Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar index were little changed afterwards, again shrugging off Trump’s attacks on Powell and the threat to the Fed’s independence that such attacks imply.
That said, Wall Street looked like it might extend record highs to the end of the week, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both up around 0.2%.
The past week saw trade agreements with Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines, while deal talks continued with the EU and South Korea.
Trump has since said Australia has agreed to open its market to American beef in a post on Truth Social, and will next meet British Prime Minister Keir Starmer in Aberdeen, Scotland, to thrash out the details of a trade framework agreed in June.
Still in the hot seat is BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda after the core consumer price index for Tokyo rose 2.9% on year in July. The central bank is in a tough spot when it comes to managing inflation. Its hands are tied as pressure builds on the prime minister to step down after the weekend’s election drubbing but with no clear candidate to replace him.
The dollar strengthened 0.2% against the yen after the inflation data to 147.23. Still, the Japanese currency remains on course for a weekly gain of 1.1%.
Key developments that could influence markets on Friday:
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(By Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Christopher Cushing)
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