LONDON (Reuters) -Markets show no signs of slowing down as they head into December with big stories playing out from Wall Street to Tokyo via the virtual corridors of OPEC+.
Alphabet is back in the AI game, investors and diplomats alike are wondering whether there is any chance of an end to the war in Ukraine, but nonetheless the signs are December could be a good month for stocks.
Here’s all you need to know about the coming week in markets by Rocky Swift in Tokyo, Lewis Krauskopf in New York and Amanda Cooper, Karin Strohecker and Ahmad Ghaddar in London.
1/ALPHABET’S ASCENSION
The artificial intelligence spotlight is shining on Alphabet, with the Google parent’s stock now 2025’s standout performer among the “Magnificent 7” megacaps.
Once seen on the AI back-foot following OpenAI’s launch of ChatGPT, Alphabet has benefited from the strong performance of its cloud business and the launch of the latest version of its AI model Gemini.
Meta is reportedly in talks to spend billions of dollars on Google’s chips, news this week that also rattled shares of semiconductor giant Nvidia.
Alphabet’s shares are up nearly 70% year-to-date, roughly doubling Nvidia’s 2025 gain, as its market value approaches $4 trillion.
But concerns about returns on massive AI investments have weighed on tech shares and will remain an issue for markets in the coming week, even as stocks have rebounded from their recent pullback.
2/EYES ON JAPAN
Debt auctions and speeches by central bankers are in focus in Japan where currency and bond markets are on edge after the announcement of massive stimulus.
The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield hit a 17-year high while the 30-year yield jumped to a record this month on concerns over the size of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s spending plan.
While higher yields normally support a currency, the yen is at a near 10-month low against the dollar. Traders fret Japanese authorities will intervene to stop it weakening further.
The jump in borrowing costs has spooked Takaichi’s administration. The new premier said that her plan was not “reckless spending” and that policymakers were closely watching JGB yields.
The latest test for JGBs will come when the Ministry of Finance sells 10-year debt on Tuesday and 30-year on Thursday.
Short-term yields have surged too as the Bank of Japan signals a near-term rate hike is possible; Governor Kazuo Ueda speaks in Nagoya on Monday.
3/WAR AND PEACE
U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest push to end Russia’s war in Ukraine – his long-sought goal – has spurred a fresh bout of shuttle diplomacy and brought momentum to parts of financial markets.
Developments have come hard and fast. A 28-point U.S. peace plan that Ukraine and Europe felt bowed to Moscow’s demands on NATO and Ukrainian territory saw Europe launch a counter proposal.
Kyiv and Washington have since created an updated framework, which Russian President Vladimir Putin said could become the basis of future agreements to end the conflict, but that if not Russia would fight on.
U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff is due in Moscow to discuss the proposal.
Ukraine’s bonds have rallied in recent days, while European defence stocks and oil have dropped.
4/ NO EXTRA OIL SUPPLY
Speaking of oil, OPEC+ is expected to keep oil output levels unchanged at its meetings on Sunday, while agreeing on a mechanism to assess members’ maximum production capacity, Reuters reported, citing sources.
The eight OPEC+ countries, which began raising output in April 2025 after years of cuts, plan to maintain their pause on hikes through the first quarter of 2026, driven by fears of oversupply and seasonally weaker oil demand.
Since April, these members – including Saudi Arabia and Russia – have lifted targets by about 2.9 million barrels per day.
Oil prices have been trending lower this year, down from a peak of more than $82 a barrel in January to the low $60s this week on those supply overhang concerns and speculation that a Russia-Ukraine peace deal could boost Moscow’s exports.[O/R]
5/ DESTINATION: NORTH
Markets are heading into the end of the year on a more even keel than at the start.
Erratic U.S. policymaking stirred volatility to crisis levels at points this year. But much has faded, and tariffs, however unwelcome for consumers and businesses, are set to stay.
The market has seemingly accepted U.S. long-term finances are unlikely to improve any time soon, but rates are set to fall in 2026, offering a layer of comfort.
This earnings season reflected a corporate sector in rude health, and while the S&P 500 is heading for a 0.4% decline this month, the bulls need not fret.
The index has only ever fallen in both November and December in nine out of the last 50 years.
(Compiled by Alun John, graphics by Vineet Sachdev, Karin Strohecker and Amanda Cooper, Editing by Andrew Heavens)
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