SAO PAULO (Reuters) -Brazil’s annual inflation fell back within the central bank’s target range in early November, official data showed on Wednesday, marking the first time since mid-January that the consumer price index met the target band.
Prices in Latin America’s largest economy rose 4.50% in the 12 months through mid-November, government statistics agency IBGE said, down from 4.94% a month earlier. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 4.49%.
Brazil’s central bank targets inflation at 3%, plus or minus 1.5 percentage points, and the recent disinflation trend has fueled bets that it will soon start an easing cycle.
Board member Nilton David said on Tuesday that interest rate hikes were no longer in the bank’s baseline scenario, noting that its next move should be a cut, though the timing remains unclear.
Earlier this month, policymakers voted to keep rates unchanged at a nearly 20-year high of 15% for the third consecutive time, after halting in July an aggressive tightening cycle that added 450 basis points to the benchmark rate.
They have vowed to bring inflation to 3%, repeating that the bank has taken a data-driven approach to monetary policy.
“It’s looking increasingly likely that Copom will kick off its easing cycle in January,” Capital Economics’ emerging markets economist Kimberley Sperrfechter said, referring to the monetary policy committee known as Copom.
Pantheon Macroeconomics’ chief Latin America economist, Andres Abadia, said he expects a first 50 basis-point cut in January.
In the month to mid-November alone, IBGE said, prices in Brazil rose 0.2%, ticking up from 0.18% the previous month. The index had been expected to rise 0.18%, according to the median forecast in a Reuters poll.
The monthly rise was driven by higher personal expenses, healthcare and transport prices, IBGE said. Closely-watched food and beverage prices edged up 0.09% after five months of declines, while household article costs fell, it added.
(Reporting by Gabriel Araujo, Editing by Louise Heavens)
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