By Tim Hepher, Ahmed Elimam and Federico Maccioni
DUBAI (Reuters) -Aircraft delays, China’s ambitions to dethrone Airbus and Boeing, and geopolitical tensions will vie for attention with new jet orders at next week’s Dubai Airshow.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tour of the Gulf in May, which included tens of billions of dollars of orders for Boeing, stole some of the thunder of the Middle East’s largest aviation event and anticipated some announcements typically showcased in Dubai.
Now it is the turn of Airbus, lagging Boeing in this year’s order race, to try to close the gap with a series of show announcements, though Boeing will also unveil some further deals, delegates said ahead of the November 17-21 event.
AIRBUS LEADS CHARGE FOR ORDERS
Airbus could weaken Boeing’s grip at flydubai as the budget carrier weighs its first European order as part of a potential split deal between Airbus and Boeing, industry sources said.
Airbus and Boeing declined to comment and flydubai was not immediately available.
Stuart Hatcher, chief economist at aviation consultancy IBA, predicted a “reasonable” haul of around 300 orders at the show – about half the level seen in peak years – including a deal for Airbus A350-1000s from flydubai’s sister airline Emirates.
Bloomberg reported that Airbus was in talks over at least 30 of the long-haul jets after Emirates delayed placing an order in a stand-off over engine performance at the previous 2023 show.
Abu Dhabi’s Etihad is expected to order over a dozen Airbus wide-body jets.
But preparations for the show have been overshadowed by new delays for Boeing’s 777X, in stark contrast to the fanfare of $100 billion of Gulf orders for the jet in Dubai 12 years ago.
Emirates is the main customer for the 400-seat long-haul jet, whose development is now seven years late. Airbus continues to face delivery delays on smaller models.
“Demand is there but the supply issues in the aviation world are still there even though other parts of the economy are doing better,” said Marjan Riggi, founder of Stage Wing Advisory.
The show takes place in the 40th anniversary year of host carrier Emirates, which led the drive to make the Gulf a vibrant junction in the global economy by offering connecting flights capable of reaching nearly all the world’s population.
Some question whether the meteoric ascent of a handful of carriers is at risk from Turkey, India and now Saudi Arabia.
“Everyone is going after exactly the same flavour of traffic,” said AeroDynamic Advisory analyst Richard Aboulafia.
So far, demand has held up better than sceptics feared.
“When Emirates was created everyone said Gulf Air would collapse, then Qatar Airways would limit Emirates’ growth, then the same with Etihad and so on. The opposite happened,” said former Airbus Middle East director Habib Fekih, author of a recent book on the jet age, “Fly High, Fly Low”.
A resurgent Air India, which has placed near-record orders, could poach some Gulf traffic but this will take time, he added.
Airbus and Boeing are also seeing their decades-old dominance questioned as the C919 from China’s COMAC makes its debut at a show outside Asia.
The competitor to the industry’s best-selling Boeing 737 and Airbus A320neo seeks sales in the Middle East and Africa as China forges closer links to the Gulf. But analysts warn it could take years to win Western certification.
FIGHTER INTEREST
The biennial show is also a stage for the arms industry, though relatively few deals get announced at the event itself.
After Trump’s visit highlighted deepening defence ties with the Gulf, analysts are watching for any inflection in agreements whereby Israel retains a regional edge in capability as Gulf nations press for access to top-line U.S. fighters.
Lockheed Martin may see more regional interest after progress on Saudi Arabia’s long-rumoured desire for the F-35, analysts said. Reuters reported this month that an export case for 48 of the stealthy jets is moving through the Pentagon.
In the past, the UAE and Qatar have requested the F-35 without deals materialising.
“There has been chatter about the Saudis being allowed to buy the F-35 – if that happens, does the door open for the UAE and others in the region?” said Byron Callan of Capital Alpha Partners.
Russia will also be courting arms buyers with a Dubai debut for its Su-57E stealth fighter.
The UAE has become a central interest for U.S. defence startups looking to expand. Anduril this week announced a partnership with Abu Dhabi’s EDGE to develop and make drones.
(Additional reporting by Mike Stone and David Jeans. Editing by Mark Potter)
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