By Maria Cheng
OTTAWA (Reuters) -Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney promised that his first budget would be a bold blueprint for “generational investments,” to bolster the economy and withstand a trade war with the U.S., but to some analysts the document he unveiled on Tuesday was a missed opportunity.
Carney’s budget, they said, ended up falling short on ambition, constrained in part by the reality of leading a minority government that will rely on political rivals to survive.
“This isn’t a generational budget,” said Theo Argitis, senior vice president for policy at the Business Council of Canada. “It goes in the right direction on some fronts, but I think Carney was not as ambitious as he could have been.”
Argitis said there was not enough in the budget that might speed private investment into Canada at the scale necessary for significant growth.
“If you’re looking to transform the economy, this budget is not going to do it,” he said.
CANADA ECONOMY FACES SLOW GROWTH, U.S. TARIFFS
Carney’s government is grappling with slow economic growth and the impact of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration.
But while increasing numbers of Canadians struggle to put food on the table, the prime minister is not necessarily the politician they blame, said Elizabeth McCallion, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto.
“Canadians know there are many things beyond Carney’s control,” she said. “They’re more angry at Donald Trump than they are at Carney.”
A poll this week from the Nanos Research Corporation found Carney was the preferred prime minister for nearly half of Canadians, versus 27% for Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative opposition.
“Canadians have shown they have confidence in Carney, but it’s now up to the House of Commons to decide whether or not he can govern,” McCallion said.
Without enough seats in his minority government to pass the budget, Carney will likely rely on the small, left-leaning New Democratic Party, which has just seven legislators.
If they simply abstain from the budget vote, expected after November 17, Carney’s government will pull through.
The New Democrats welcomed some of the budget’s measures, such as infrastructure spending tied to union jobs, but said in a statement that cuts in the public sector workforce and other provisions were “a step in the wrong direction.”
The party’s interim leader Don Davies said it would take time to assess the budget and talk to Canadians.
BUDGET COMMITS TO NEW INFRASTRUCTURE, SPENDING CUTS
The prime minister’s budget commits to spending C$280 billion (US$200 billion) over five years to build new infrastructure while cutting C$60 billion in government spending and trimming about 40,000 jobs from the civil service in the next three years.
Another contentious issue for the budget is its proposed deficit, which Carney and his finance minister, Francois-Philippe Champagne, estimated at C$78 billion for the next fiscal year, or more than double last year’s deficit. It would drop to C$57 billion by 2030.
Opposition leader Poilievre had previously laid out several key demands for Carney’s budget, including keeping the deficit below C$42 billion.
Poilievre on Tuesday also criticized Carney’s budget for keeping the Liberal Party’s taxes on groceries, work, energy and homebuilding.
But one Conservative Member of Parliament, Chris D’Entremont of Nova Scotia’s Acadie-Annapolis district, appeared convinced by Carney’s budget. He announced on Tuesday he had joined Carney’s Liberals, although the government will still be left with a minority.
Robert Asselin, who once served as an adviser to Liberal ministers and now heads an organization of research universities, said Carney could have spent much more to drive growth in the country, but that would likely have resulted in a deficit beyond C$100 billion.
“Realistically, it will take at least two or three budgets for Carney to get the growth in the economy that he’s talked about. It’s a good budget, but it’s not the transformational budget that we were sold.”
Drew Fagan, a visiting professor at Yale University who specializes in global affairs, added: “You cannot simply turn around the world’s 10th largest economy with one budget.”
($1 = 1.4024 Canadian dollars)
(Reporting by Maria Cheng; Editing by Caroline Stauffer and Edmund Klamann)
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