By Panarat Thepgumpanat and Panu Wongcha-um
BANGKOK (Reuters) -Thailand’s ruling party, besieged by a faltering economy and a border crisis, faces more uncertainty this week as the Supreme Court begins hearing a case that could lead to jail time for its most influential politician, Thaksin Shinawatra.
The billionaire former premier, and the driving force behind the government of his daughter Paetongtarn Shinawatra, skipped prison on his return in 2023 from 15 years of self-exile by serving his detention in hospital, on grounds of ill-health.
But this week’s proceedings could add to mounting troubles for political newcomer Paetongtarn and her Pheu Thai party, if the court deems the hospital detention unlawful and orders Thaksin to serve his original prison time.
“There is already a crisis of confidence for the prime minister,” said Wanwichit Boonprong, a lecturer in political science at Rangsit University.
“Many people feel the government cannot handle all the crises the country is facing.”
An escalation in a border row with Cambodia has also rattled Paetongtarn’s government, with Thailand’s politically powerful military, which overthrew Shinawatra governments in 2006 and 2014, making its presence felt as nationalist rhetoric heats up.
Critics will scrutinise the government’s handling of critical talks with its neighbour set for Saturday, amid growing public unease over its management of an economy shackled by crippling household debt.
A negative outcome in Thaksin’s case and the border dispute would ratchet up the pressure on Pheu Thai, say analysts, both in the ruling coalition and among the public, as protest simmers.
But veteran Pheu Thai politician Somkid Chuekong dismissed any potential political impact from Thaksin’s case, emphasising that he has no direct say in government affairs.
“He has only expressed his thoughts and suggestions on the government’s work,” said Somkid, who is Paetongtarn’s deputy secretary-general.
Thaksin could not immediately be reached for comment.
His case and the government’s handling of various challenges have chipped away at public confidence, said Rangsiman Rome, a lawmaker of the opposition People’s Party.
“It will be very difficult to govern in the short term, because the people no longer have any confidence left.”
VIP TREATMENT
Thaksin appeared in good health as he met cheering crowds on his return home in 2023, before appearing in court to be sentenced to eight years in jail for abuse of power and conflicts of interest.
The 75-year-old spent just a few hours in jail before complaining of chest and heart problems and was transferred to the VIP wing of a hospital, prompting outrage and mockery from a public sceptical about the sudden deterioration of his health.
A royal pardon cut his sentence to one year, and he was released on parole after six months.
On Thursday, the Medical Council of Thailand will decide if three doctors who signed off on Thaksin’s hospital stay should be punished for abusing their authority.
That decision will feed into a Supreme Court process that starts on Friday concerning the legality of the hospital detention. It is unclear when it will yield a verdict.
Despite not holding any formal position, Thaksin has cast a long shadow over the government, through meetings with foreign leaders, campaigning in local elections and weighing in on policy.
Sixty percent of respondents in a poll last week believed Thaksin’s case would affect the stability of a government whose popularity was shaken after it paused a cash handout programme to tens of millions of Thais.
“He has a lot of influence on this government and it would hurt public confidence if the outcome of the case is negative,” said Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political science expert at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University.
BORDER TENSIONS
The Pheu Thai administration is also grappling to keep the border dispute with Cambodia from spiralling out of control, as both sides have mobilised troops before talks between their militaries curbed rising tension set off by a recent skirmish.
Saturday’s talks with Cambodia may not lead to a resolution, however, said Titipol Phakdeewanich, a specialist in political science at Ubon Ratchathani University.
“The prime minister has not been very firm in her statements, which raised questions by some about whether this government is actually protecting the interests of the country,” Titipol said.
The border row has become a lightning rod for administration critics, with royalists holding small protests and urging the military to oust the government, as it has at least 10 times since 1932.
“The country now faces security issues and nationalism is on the rise at a time when government leadership is at its weakest,” said Jatuporn Prompan, a Thaksin ally turned critic.
“Some people have started calling for a coup.”
But Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai last week talked down such a possibility.
“The army has to do its duty,” he told reporters. “There is no conflict with the government.”
(Reporting by Panarat Thepgumpanat and Panu Wongcha-um, Editing by Devjyot Ghoshal and Clarence Fernandez)
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