(Reuters) -With the labor market stable, inflation running somewhat above target, and the outlook uncertain, the Federal Reserve is keeping a watchful eye on a broad range of data to judge what response might be needed, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Lorie Logan said on Monday,.
“Monetary policy is really well positioned for us to wait and be patient and watch the data, knowing that if the risks are to materially change on either side, we’re well positioned to act,” Logan said at a banking conference. “Our job is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level doesn’t become an ongoing persistent problem of inflation.”
Logan’s remarks echo those of many of her rate-setting colleagues who expect U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs to push up both on unemployment and on inflation, potentially putting the central bank in the difficult position of needing to pick which battle to prioritize.
Fed policymakers next meet in about two weeks, and are widely expected to leave short-term borrowing costs in their current 4.25%-4.50% range where they have been since December. Financial markets aren’t expecting a rate cut until September, based on pricing of short-term interest-rate futures contracts.
For Logan, inflation data is “first and foremost” in her sights. The Fed’s target for inflation is a 2% year-over-year change in the personal consumption expenditures price index; data released last week showed PCE inflation was 2.1%.
Most analysts, however, feel that the impact of Trump’s aggressive tariffs has yet to be reflected in the data.
Logan noted Dallas Fed surveys that show half of businesses expect to raise prices to consumers because of the higher import duties. Households and businesses expect inflation to rise in the short-term, surveys show.
“The key risk to our outlook is that those higher expectations for inflation from tariffs or other potential shocks extend well past the period of those shocks affecting the economy, and then the risk is that those expectations become entrenched,” Logan said.
Tariffs themselves, uncertainty over national economic policies, and resulting financial market volatility may also slow the economy, Logan said. So far, she said, the labor market has stayed in balance, and the economy has been stable.
A reading on May’s job market health comes on Friday, with economists expecting government data to show employers added about 130,000 jobs, down from 177,000 the prior month, but the unemployment rate to remain at its current 4.2%.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
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