By Rod Nickel
WINNIPEG, Manitoba (Reuters) – Canada’s ruling Liberals are still in the lead ahead of an election on Monday but the gap with the trailing Conservatives is tightening, a rolling three-day poll showed on Thursday.
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals hold 42.9% support, followed by Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives at 39.3% and the New Democratic Party at 7.2%, according to the CTV News-Globe and Mail-Nanos poll.
The 3.6-point gap between the two leading parties as of Wednesday compares with a 5.6-point Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the same poll a day earlier.
Such a result on Election Day would produce a fourth consecutive Liberal mandate but Carney might only win a minority of seats in the House of Commons, leaving him reliant on smaller parties to govern.
If the Conservatives are gaining ground, it may be because U.S. President Donald Trump has not been threatening Canada as much lately, said Paul Thomas, professor emeritus of political studies at University of Manitoba.
U.S. tariffs and Trump’s musings about annexing Canada have been a key focus for Carney.
“The sense of crisis has probably diminished somewhat,” Thomas said. He added that voters’ focus may be shifting back to cost of living concerns, while Poilievre’s softening of his sometimes aggressive tone on the campaign trail may also be attracting support.
Liberal support is typically more efficiently distributed across Canada, resulting in more parliamentary seats. The Conservatives tend to win by large margins in rural areas with fewer seats.
Carney remains the preferred choice as prime minister, but Poilievre is also narrowing that gap, the Nanos poll said.
Nanos Research surveyed 1,307 Canadians from April 21 to 23, and the poll is considered accurate plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
The Conservatives’ gains follow the release of the party’s costed platform and two leaders’ debates last week, in which both Poilievre and Carney received mostly favourable reviews.
“We can’t afford a fourth Liberal term of rising costs and crime,” Poilievre told reporters in Halifax, Nova Scotia, on Thursday, pledging to scrap electric-vehicle sales mandates.
An Abacus Data poll on Wednesday placed the Liberals at 40% support among decided voters, with the Conservatives at 37%. Abacus said Liberals’ share of support was unchanged from last week, while the Conservatives were down one point.
The poll was conducted among 2,000 eligible voters from April 18 to 21 and the margin of error is 2.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
(Reporting by Rod Nickel in Winnipeg, Manitoba; Editing by David Ljunggren and Nia Williams)
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