By Joseph Ax
(Reuters) -Wisconsin voters will choose a new justice for the state’s top court on Tuesday in a race that offers an early referendum on Donald Trump’s presidency, with abortion rights, labor rights and election rules all potentially in the balance.
The campaign is easily the most expensive judicial contest in U.S. history. More than $90 million has been spent by the candidates, the state parties and outside groups – including more than $21 million by Trump ally Elon Musk and political groups with ties to him, according to a tally from New York University’s Brennan Center.
Liberal Susan Crawford, a county judge, and conservative Brad Schimel, a former Republican state attorney general and also a county judge, are vying for a seat on the court that currently has a 4-3 liberal edge. The race is technically non-partisan, though Trump has endorsed Schimel and both state Democrats and Republicans have lined up behind their preferred candidate.
The court is likely to issue critical rulings on voting rights and election rules ahead of the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race, when Wisconsin is expected to remain a central battleground. Trump won Wisconsin in November by less than a percentage point – the closest margin of any state.
The court is also poised to decide whether abortion rights should remain legal statewide and could revisit a Republican-backed law that stripped most public employee unions of collective bargaining rights.
Musk, whose so-called Department of Government Efficiency is overseeing Trump’s unprecedented cost-cutting campaign at the federal government, has become a central figure in the race. He held a rally on Sunday night where his main super PAC, or political action committee, handed out $1 million checks to two voters.
Wisconsin’s Democratic attorney general, Josh Kaul, sued to block the payments, arguing that they violated a state anti-bribery law. The state Supreme Court declined to take up the case without comment shortly before Sunday’s event.
Musk, who spent more than $250 million to help Trump win election in November, also promised to pay volunteers $20 for every voter they recruit before Tuesday’s election.
The Tesla CEO said he is concerned that a liberal court could seek to redraw the state’s Republican-created congressional lines, which could imperil the party’s thin majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in next year’s midterm elections.
“I think this will be important for the future of civilization. It’s that significant,” Musk said at Sunday’s rally.
Democrats have sought to highlight Musk’s involvement, with Crawford’s supporters emphasizing that Musk may have a personal stake in the outcome – Tesla sued the state in January over a law barring car manufacturers from opening dealerships, a case that could eventually come before the state Supreme Court.
Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment about accusations he has a personal interest in the election’s outcome.
Crawford’s campaign has gotten a boost from billionaire Democratic megadonors, including philanthropist George Soros and Illinois Governor J.B. Pritzker.
Separately, voters in Florida will cast ballots in a pair of special elections to fill U.S. House vacancies created by Trump’s cabinet picks. Republicans are expected to easily hold both seats, though Democrats are watching closely to see if their candidates win more than the roughly one-third of the vote they secured in November.
Republican state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis is running against Democrat Gay Valimont, a gun violence prevention activist, in one district centered on Pensacola. In the other district, which includes Daytona Beach, Republican state Senator Randy Fine faces Democrat Josh Weil, a public school educator.
Victories in both would broaden Republicans’ House majority to 220-213.
(Reporting by Joseph Ax; Editing by Nia Williams)
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