By Maayan Lubell
JERUSALEM (Reuters) – Israel has warned that its latest onslaught in Gaza is “just the beginning” as its forces pound the enclave with deadly airstrikes and launch new ground operations.
But a return to a full-scale ground war against the Palestinian militant group Hamas could prove more complicated amid waning public support, exhausted military reservists and political challenges, some current and former Israeli officials, as well as analysts say.
Military service is mandatory in Israel, a small nation of fewer than 10 million people, but it relies heavily on reservists in times of crisis.
Reservists flocked to their units when Hamas-led gunmen attacked Israel in October 2023, some without waiting to be called up. But after multiple months-long deployments, some are reluctant to return to Gaza, six reservists and a group that advocates on their behalf told Reuters.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to resume bombardments on Tuesday, has also added fuel to the anger of protesters who accuse the government of continuing the war for political reasons and endangering the lives of hostages still held in Gaza, where a ceasefire largely held for two months.
Netanyahu on Tuesday said such accusations were “shameless” and that the renewed campaign was aimed at getting the remaining 59 hostages back.
Tens of thousands have demonstrated against Netanyahu’s government in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem since Tuesday.
“In a democratic state, the internal legitimacy (of a war) is very, very important,” said retired General Yaakov Amidror, who served as Netanyahu’s national security adviser in 2011-2013.
The question, he said, is “how much the decision makers are willing to forego legitimacy because they think the action is important” and “how much their ability to act will be compromised without legitimacy”.
Israel and Hamas accuse each other of breaching the truce.
Recent opinion polls suggest that most people in Israel want to continue negotiations for a deal that would end the war, release all remaining hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners and see a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces.
Three defence officials familiar with Israeli decision making told Reuters in the days leading up to this week’s campaign that the resumption of fighting would be gradual, leaving a door open for negotiations to extend the truce. They did not elaborate.
Two other Israeli officials said that Netanyahu has approved a plan for a wide-scale operation that includes the option to send in more ground troops.
Netanyahu’s office declined to comment, and the defence ministry did not respond to questions for this article.
Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesperson, told Reuters that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have plans in place for different scenarios, including ground operations if needed.
“The aim of this campaign against Hamas is to dismantle their capabilities, to prevent them from carrying out terror attacks and to create pressure for hostages being returned – whether it’s through military operations, or through some sort of political deal,” Shoshani said on Wednesday.
“All options are on the table.”
Military leaders acknowledge that burnout has been an issue among reservists. But Shoshani said when it matters, reservists have shown a willingness to drop what they are doing and risk their lives to defend their country, adding the IDF has a plan to ease the burden on them.
BURNOUT
The Gaza war – the most devastating chapter in decades of Israel-Palestinian conflict – is Israel’s longest since its 1948 war of independence. More than 400 soldiers have been killed and thousands wounded in Gaza combat.
The Israeli campaign has reduced swathes of Gaza to rubble, repeatedly displacing hundreds of thousands of people who survive on whatever aid can reach them. More than 49,000 people have been killed in the enclave, according to Palestinian health authorities, who don’t distinguish between civilians and combatants.
Israeli officials say Hamas’ military wing has been hit hard, with its leaders and thousands of fighters killed.
But the group remains deeply entrenched in Gaza and still holds 59 of the 251 hostages who were seized on October 7, 2023. The attack claimed the lives of some 1,200 people in southern Israel, according to Israeli tallies.
At least 40 of the hostages have died in Gaza, either slain by their captors or killed inadvertently by Israeli forces. Israeli authorities believe that around 24 others are alive.
In the three months before the January ceasefire, guerrilla attacks exacted some of the highest Israeli casualty tolls of the war, which, along with the deaths of hostages, has raised questions in Israel about the offensive’s costs and gains.
Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners opposed the ceasefire and have pressed for a full-scale return to war. The resumption of Israeli strikes this week earned him a political boost when former national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir rejoined the coalition. Netanyahu was left with only a thin parliamentary majority following his departure in January over disagreements about the ceasefire.
But the prime minister has appeared increasingly out of touch with public sentiment, fracturing the broad consensus that has underpinned Israel’s war, said Amotz Asa-El, a political analyst with the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.
A coalition of hostage families and protesters opposed to Netanyahu’s moves against the judiciary and parts of the Israeli security establishment is now coming together again.
Hamas accused Israel this week of jeopardising efforts to negotiate a permanent end to the fighting and called on mediators to “assume their responsibilities”.
Some Western nations, including France and Germany, condemned the violence, along with Qatar and Egypt, which had been acting as mediators.
TOUGH TALK
Netanyahu said he ordered strikes because Hamas had rejected proposals backed by the U.S. to extend the ceasefire in exchange for releasing the remaining hostages. Israel would now act against the group “with increasing military strength,” his office said in a statement on Tuesday.
Defence Minister Israel Katz said “the gates of hell will open” if Hamas does not release all the hostages.
Despite the tough talk, there was no immediate sign of the large-scale mobilization that took place in 2023, when the military called up 300,000 reservists to reinforce a standing force estimated at around 170,000. The IDF does not disclove personnel figures.
The IDF sent an elite infantry brigade to the Gaza border on Wednesday and announced on Thursday that it was “conducting ground activity” along a coastal route in northern Gaza.
Any major ground offensive is also expected to involve reserve forces, although it may not require as many as at the start of the war.
“Rooting out the Hamas fighters still left would require more manpower, more boots on the ground,” said Amidror. “The key is how many will show up.”
As the war dragged on, many have struggled to balance work, family, and studies with military deployments, the reservists interviewed by Reuters said. All have seen the number of comrades asking to be excused from tours of duty increase over time.
“Until now my feeling was that as long a there are hostages there, I am in, but now I don’t know,” said one special forces reservist, who spent about eight of the first 15 months of the war deployed in Gaza, Lebanon and northern Israel. “There’s a lot of mistrust in the country’s leadership, and it’s not clear if military pressure will help the hostages.”
He also worries about the toll on his wife and six children, one of whom, he said, had started preparing eulogies for him. Like others interviewed, he asked for anonymity to discuss sensitive matters freely.
Ynet, a mainstream Israeli news outlet, and the left-leaning Haaretz newspaper reported this month that the number of reservists showing up when called has dropped to as low as 60% in some units. The IDF did not comment.
Hanoch Daube, a recently retired colonel who commanded reserve and regular forces in Gaza, said the drop would not prevent the military from launching a major ground offensive, if needed. Israeli reserve units have more people they can draw on than are needed at any given time, and any shortfall is being made up with volunteers from other units.
But if the campaign turns into a protracted guerrilla war without clear strategic aims, that would eventually lead to burnout, said Daube, who now heads an association of reservists known as the Iron Swords Warriors Forum.
A scientist and father of five who spent most of the first year of the war in uniform said he would not hesitate to rejoin his tank unit if summoned back to Gaza.
“I have a lot of criticism about this government even before the war, but this war is just,” he said.
A friend from his unit wasn’t so sure. He said he has deep bonds with his comrades and might go back for a time out of a sense of duty. But he would have little faith in the mission, this time.
“After October 7, we felt like the country was falling apart, But the country isn’t falling apart now,” he said. “They don’t need us like they did.”
(Writing by Alexandra Zavis; Editing by James Mackenzie and Alexandra Zavis)
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